Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Sandbox?

Sandbox + Psychological Horror

Of 58 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×8.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×72329 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 119 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 119 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $33k → $7.0k → $97k → $49k → $3.6k → $4.5k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,275)
Top 25% $97k (exactly $97,370)
Top 5% $45M (exactly $45,422,810)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 208
Announced 119
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 277,043 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $97k, 1 in 20 over $45M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 6 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 15,628 80% 469k $28M (exactly $28,125,712) Rockstar Games
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Amnesia: The Bunker older $24.99 10,349 93% 310k $7.8M (exactly $7,758,645) Frictional Games
Blood Trail · EA older $24.99 7,181 80% 215k $5.4M (exactly $5,383,596) Electrovore
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
City Car Driving 2.0 · EA $29.99 1,198 60% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,077,841) Forward Development, Ltd.
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games
MyVoiceZoo $2.99 3,360 92% 101k $301k (exactly $301,392) TRUSO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.