Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Post-apocalyptic

Of 37 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1989 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 106 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 106 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.8k → $3.6k → $2.9k → $6.7k → $3.0k → $35k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 136
Announced 106
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Tactics, Strategy
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,676 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Urtuk: The Desolation older $13.99 2,408 87% 72k $1.0M (exactly $1,010,638) David Kaleta
Fallout Tactics: Brotherhood of Steel older $9.99 2,356 79% 71k $706k (exactly $706,093) 14° East
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
METAL MAX Xeno Reborn older $39.99 444 65% 13k $533k (exactly $532,667) 24Frame,inc.
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Blightstone · EA $15.99 482 76% 14k $231k (exactly $231,215) Unfinished Pixel
Defender's Quest 2: Mists of Ruin $19.99 242 61% 7.3k $145k (exactly $145,127) Level Up Labs, LLC
MEMOLITH: Forsaken by Light $19.99 220 76% 6.6k $132k (exactly $131,934) Black Anchor
Entropy · EA $11.99 293 94% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Lovely Hellplace
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.