Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Post-apocalyptic

Of 40 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×704 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 108 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 108 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $59 → $23k → $1.3k → $16k → $390 → $594 (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,184)
Top 5% $442k (exactly $442,323)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 124
Announced 108
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Cepheus Protocol · EA older $19.99 2,983 76% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,905) Halcyon Winds
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Nuclear Dawn older $9.99 1,619 78% 49k $485k (exactly $485,214) GameConnect, InterWave Studios
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Oxygen older $14.99 830 70% 25k $373k (exactly $373,251) Turquoise Revival Games
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
Eximius: Seize the Frontline older $19.99 511 74% 15k $306k (exactly $306,447) Ammobox Studios
No Creeps Were Harmed TD older $19.99 468 88% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) MinMax Games Ltd.
Defender's Quest 2: Mists of Ruin $19.99 242 61% 7.3k $145k (exactly $145,127) Level Up Labs, LLC
Rift Riff $12.99 367 94% 11k $143k (exactly $143,020) Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs K… (Adriaan de Jongh, Sim Kaart, Matthijs Koster, Franz LaZerte, Professional Panda)
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive
After Long Night $9.99 381 72% 11k $114k (exactly $114,186) 疯狗工作室
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
Machinefall $14.99 119 82% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) by Jan Zizka
MOCHI-O $4.99 231 99% 6.9k $35k (exactly $34,581) Zxima
Battlefall: State of Conflict · EA $19.99 52 63% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Kyoto Video Game Concern

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.