Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim Sandbox?

Sandbox + Political Sim

Of 55 developers who shipped a Political Sim Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.4k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1060 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 108 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 108 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $479k → $6.3k → $14k → $17k → $31k → $8.5k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Median $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $111,488)
Top 5% $666k (exactly $665,667)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 135
Announced 108
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Political Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 8,777 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $7.4k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Tropico 5 older $19.99 9,796 78% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,874,661) Haemimont Games
Democracy 3 older $24.99 6,245 73% 187k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,876) Positech Games
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
Pompeii: The Legacy $19.99 266 80% 8.0k $160k (exactly $159,520) Siscia Games
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.