Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Political Sim?

PvP + Political Sim

Only 18 developers shipped a PvP Political Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sid Meier's Civilization VII, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×4.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $94M, ×62779 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $58k → $9.4k → $52k → $899 → $1.2k (still earning) → $66k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Top 25% $66k (exactly $66,249)
Top 5% $94M (exactly $94,043,463)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 55
Announced 29
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Political Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Grand Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 51% positive over 48,898 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $66k, 1 in 20 over $94M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Dummynation older $11.99 3,127 88% 94k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,782) Alejandro Hernández Ferrero
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Supreme Ruler Ultimate older $19.99 1,169 77% 35k $701k (exactly $701,049) BattleGoat Studios
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Project Planet - Earth vs Humanity older $24.99 361 78% 11k $271k (exactly $270,642) Fifth Harbour Studios
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
The Political Machine 2024 older $19.99 255 74% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
4th Generation Warfare older $29.99 129 59% 3.9k $116k (exactly $116,061) Eversim
SGS NATO's Nightmare older $34.99 107 70% 3.2k $112k (exactly $112,318) Strategy Game Studio
Maestro's Cold War 2 $12.99 170 92% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) Maestro Cinetik
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
SGS Imjin War $29.99 29 65% 870 $26k (exactly $26,091) Strategy Game Studio
SGS Spain at War $29.99 25 88% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Warga… (Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Wargames)
Nuice Industries · EA $7.99 25 96% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) CastleWind
LouveSystems' Realms $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) LouveSystems

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.