Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Point & Click

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Point & Click Sandbox?

Sandbox + Point & Click

Of 108 developers who shipped a Point & Click Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×740 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 135 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 135 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Point & Click
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 108
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.5k → $2.1k → $2.3k → $9.3k → $628 → $1.1k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Point & Click: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 108
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,187)
Top 5% $465k (exactly $464,990)
Developers, 2 yr 108
Released games 271
Announced 135
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Point & Click
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Point & Click; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 14,857 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Game Dev Tycoon older $9.99 40,312 95% 1.2M $12M (exactly $12,081,506) Greenheart Games 💚
Little Inferno older $14.99 9,131 96% 274k $4.1M (exactly $4,106,211) Tomorrow Corporation
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
EmergeNYC · EA older $24.99 3,760 64% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) FlipSwitch Games
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Sticky Business older $9.99 6,001 95% 180k $1.8M (exactly $1,798,500) Spellgarden Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Passpartout 2: The Lost Artist older $24.99 1,234 95% 37k $925k (exactly $925,130) Flamebait Games
The Censor DX Edition $17.99 1,467 82% 44k $792k (exactly $791,740) Tiramisu, Big S Studio
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Ship, Inc. $9.99 2,168 83% 65k $650k (exactly $649,750) Rogue Duck Interactive
Maltese's Fluffy Onsen $5.99 2,727 94% 82k $490k (exactly $490,042) Sinkhole Studio, Moonlab Studio
Birdwatching Notebook $9.99 1,588 97% 48k $476k (exactly $475,924) Biekka Games
The Executive - Movie Industry Tycoon $14.99 1,034 80% 31k $465k (exactly $464,990) Aniki Games
Midnight Sin $19.99 387 82% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Faerin Games
NTRaholic SS $14.99 508 62% 15k $228k (exactly $228,448) Tiramisu, Big S Studio
Cozy Organizer $7.99 649 67% 19k $156k (exactly $155,565) Rogue Duck Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.