Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Sandbox?

Sandbox + Platformer

Of 80 developers who shipped a Platformer Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 158 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 158 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $1.0k → $7.0k → $540 → $299 → $479 → $390 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $264k (exactly $264,468)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 289
Announced 158
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Funny, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 12,926 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Terraria 2011 · $372M LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes 2013 · $14M DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 2019 · $10M Farever 2026 · EA · $5.4M Scribblenauts Unlimited 2012 · $4.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
LEGO® Marvel™ Super Heroes older $19.99 22,663 95% 680k $14M (exactly $13,591,001) Traveller's Tales
DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 older $49.99 6,888 92% 207k $10M (exactly $10,329,934) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Scribblenauts Unlimited older $19.99 8,003 94% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,799,399) 5th Cell Media
Super Bunny Man older $14.99 10,143 85% 304k $4.6M (exactly $4,561,307) Catobyte
Biped older $14.99 9,025 85% 271k $4.1M (exactly $4,058,542) NEXT Studios
The LEGO® Movie - Videogame older $19.99 3,626 86% 109k $2.2M (exactly $2,174,512) TT Fusion, Traveller's Tales
SteamWorld Dig older $9.99 6,509 94% 195k $2.0M (exactly $1,950,747) Image & Form Games
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Fun with Ragdolls Plus $19.99 191 76% 5.7k $115k (exactly $114,543) Jadon Barnes
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Human Fall Flat VR $12.99 128 47% 3.8k $50k (exactly $49,882) No Brakes Games
Jumping Jazz Cats $8.99 148 74% 4.4k $40k (exactly $39,916) Le Catnip Collective
A Corgi's Cozy Hike $19.99 63 100% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Scalisco
Pawbay: Cat Chaos $19.99 20 70% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) COMMANDO PANDA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.