Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Pirates

Only 7 developers shipped a Pirate Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SeaCret 1, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×8.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $720 against a market of $630. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 25 announced, ×8.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $733 → $2.7k → $15k
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $119k (exactly $118,770)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 32
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 3,204 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $720, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 25 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Airship: Kingdoms Adrift older $29.99 902 75% 27k $812k (exactly $811,529) Revolution Industry
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Uncharted Ocean older $4.99 563 70% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) HiRabbitgame
Distant Star: Revenant Fleet older $9.99 258 63% 7.7k $77k (exactly $77,323) Blazing Griffin
XO · EA older $19.99 82 87% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Jumpdrive Studios
Frigato: Shadows of the Caribbean older $11.99 49 30% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Mercat Games
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame
Pixel Pirate older $24.99 14 78% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Stas Paty9mkin
Swords and Sandals Pirates older $6.99 45 68% 1.4k $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Warlordocracy $4.99 27 96% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Sof… (Brian J. Lancaster, Laughing Coyote Software)
Legacy of Sail $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Hydran Software
Goblin Lands $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hot Waffle Games
Island Hook $54.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) CouraGGe ent.
Pray or Die: Tactical Defense $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hyper-Ego Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.