Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Physics game?

Physics + Western

Only 14 developers shipped a Western Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Last Train Outta' Wormtown, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×832 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $1.4k → $26k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,648)
Top 5% $523k (exactly $522,644)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 27
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,176 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Last Train Outta' Wormtown 2025 · $523k Railroad Corporation 2 2026 · $451k Cowbots and Aliens 2023 · $54k Wild West Miner Simulator 2026 · $33k Tumbleweed Destiny 2022 · $32k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Cowbots and Aliens older $19.99 90 82% 2.7k $54k (exactly $53,973) Wizard Games Inc, Chicken Waffle
Wild West Miner Simulator $5.99 181 66% 5.4k $33k (exactly $32,526) Digital Melody
Tumbleweed Destiny older $2.99 352 95% 11k $32k (exactly $31,574) KIMIDORI SOFT
Trail & Error · EA $7.99 107 70% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,648) Oberha5li Studios
DuelVox: Max Quality older $19.99 18 72% 540 $11k (exactly $10,795) Piece Of Voxel
PIZZA WESTERN 🍕 $29.99 10 90% 300 $9.0k (exactly $8,997) Lola Fisher
Projectile Dysfunction · EA older $3.99 38 65% 1.1k $4.5k (exactly $4,549) Tuckfard Games
EvilPunk $4.99 21 61% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Digivega Studios
Hogtie $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Alacrity Games
Golfslinger $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Chaos Cactus
Renegade Cat Marbles $2.99 3 0% 90 $269 (exactly $269) LetsGMOMG
Spider Canyon $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) GrilledBlueTuna, Nathan Lapp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.