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Should I ship a War Physics game?
Physics + War
Of 70 developers who shipped a War Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1210 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 146 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,242) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,658) |
| Top 5% | $760k (exactly $759,820) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 70 |
| Released games | 226 |
| Announced | 146 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, PvE
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 26,144 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
Ravenfield 2017 · EA · $41M 
UBOAT 2024 · $23M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Ravenfield | · EA older | $17.99 | 76,492 96% | 2.3M | $41M (exactly $41,282,732) | SteelRaven7 |
| | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
 | VTOL VR | older | $29.99 | 19,885 98% | 597k | $18M (exactly $17,890,534) | Boundless Dynamics, LLC |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 | older | $39.99 | 12,781 83% | 383k | $15M (exactly $15,333,366) | CI Games |
 | From the Depths | older | $24.99 | 11,059 89% | 332k | $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) | Brilliant Skies Ltd. |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Cleared Hot | · EA | $17.99 | 3,934 96% | 118k | $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) | Not Knowing Corporation |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
 | GERONIMO | · EA | $19.99 | 1,267 81% | 38k | $760k (exactly $759,820) | Dark Matter Studios |
 | Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator | $29.99 | 800 80% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | SIMTECH SOLUTIONS | |
 | Creeper World IXE | $19.99 | 855 69% | 26k | $513k (exactly $512,743) | Knuckle Cracker | |
 | Trench Tales | · EA | $24.99 | 601 69% | 18k | $451k (exactly $450,570) | Talking Drums |
 | Modern Naval Warfare | · EA | $59.99 | 237 58% | 7.1k | $427k (exactly $426,529) | Wave Ops |
 | Ratten Reich | $19.99 | 616 40% | 18k | $369k (exactly $369,415) | METALLADLERSTUDIO | |
 | Zero Caliber 2 Remastered | $24.99 | 433 79% | 13k | $325k (exactly $324,620) | XREAL Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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