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Should I ship a Villain-Led Physics game?
Physics + Villain Protagonist
Only 11 developers shipped a Villain-Led Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dungeon Warfare 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is up 860% on the market; 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 25% | $95k (exactly $95,087) |
| Top 5% | $387k (exactly $386,826) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 860% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,965 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $5.1k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
CARRION 2020 · $20M 
Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M 
STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition 2009 · $5.2M 
Mr.President! 2016 · $1.5M 
Evil Nun: The Broken Mask 2023 · $650k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | CARRION | older | $19.99 | 33,270 94% | 998k | $20M (exactly $19,952,019) | Phobia Game Studio |
| | Untitled Goose Game | older | $19.99 | 22,797 95% | 684k | $14M (exactly $13,671,361) | House House |
| | STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition | older | $19.99 | 8,732 77% | 262k | $5.2M (exactly $5,236,580) | LucasArts |
| | Mr.President! | older | $9.99 | 4,958 83% | 149k | $1.5M (exactly $1,485,913) | Game Developer X |
| | Evil Nun: The Broken Mask | older | $19.99 | 1,084 95% | 33k | $650k (exactly $650,075) | Keplerians, Carlos Coronado |
 | Pih | older | $8.99 | 1,767 94% | 53k | $477k (exactly $476,560) | BecomeANobody |
 | Autobahn Police Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 760 54% | 23k | $456k (exactly $455,772) | Z-Software |
 | Dungeon Warfare 3 | $18.99 | 679 78% | 20k | $387k (exactly $386,826) | Excidium Inc., Valsar | |
 | Mr. Sleepy Man | $19.99 | 636 98% | 19k | $381k (exactly $381,409) | Devin Santi | |
 | Terror of Hemasaurus | older | $14.99 | 766 91% | 23k | $344k (exactly $344,470) | Loren Lemcke |
 | Excidio The Kaiju Simulator | $12.99 | 244 92% | 7.3k | $95k (exactly $95,087) | TokuPop | |
 | Police Officer | $11.99 | 125 65% | 3.8k | $45k (exactly $44,962) | Turquoise Games | |
 | SECTOR ZERO | $3.99 | 138 93% | 4.1k | $17k (exactly $16,519) | Ondrej Angelovic | |
 | Vindefiant | $14.99 | 31 80% | 930 | $14k (exactly $13,941) | Blakey Games | |
 | Toastercide | $9.99 | 28 100% | 840 | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) | The Chairman | |
 | Shoe it All! | $7.99 | 21 100% | 630 | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) | Amberbite | |
 | Pigeon Hater | $1.99 | 48 95% | 1.4k | $2.9k (exactly $2,866) | Gif2MemeGame | |
 | Ooze: The Great and Powerful | $5.99 | 15 100% | 450 | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) | Play Hooky |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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