Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Turn-Based Tactics?

Physics + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 36 developers who shipped a Physics Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×211 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 64 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $419 → $1.1k → $4.2k → $3.2k → $14k → $269 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,662)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 110
Announced 64
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phantom Brigade 2023 · $4.0M Consume Me 2025 · $479k Cursed to Golf 2022 · $416k Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) 2019 · $187k Flick Shot Rogues 2025 · $133k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Consume Me $14.99 1,066 91% 32k $479k (exactly $479,380) Jenny Jiao Hsia, AP Thomson, Jie En Lee… (Jenny Jiao Hsia, AP Thomson, Jie En Lee, Violet W-P, Ken "coda" Snyder)
Cursed to Golf older $19.99 693 70% 21k $416k (exactly $415,592) Chuhai Labs
Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) older $24.99 250 70% 7.5k $187k (exactly $187,425) Auroch Digital
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Candy Disaster - Tower Defense older $13.99 250 81% 7.5k $105k (exactly $104,925) ACE Entertainment
Play with my balls older $29.99 92 89% 2.8k $83k (exactly $82,772) Galactic Geckon
Bearnard older $16.99 152 97% 4.6k $77k (exactly $77,474) Michał Wikliński
Sushi Cat Legacy Collection $4.99 263 95% 7.9k $39k (exactly $39,371) Armor Games Studios
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Critter Crossfire $14.99 31 90% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Evan Polekoff
Pegs X Stickers $5.99 65 87% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,680) Mister Morris Games, Tyler Ray Games
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps
100FRIENDS $9.99 32 87% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) TWIN PIXELS
Battle Architect: Dalasito · EA $9.99 19 52% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Dalas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.