Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Turn-Based Strategy?

Physics + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 42 developers who shipped a Physics Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×1414 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 71 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $539 → $1.5k → $239 → $3.2k → $3.1k → $807 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,499)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $888k (exactly $887,740)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 100
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Turn-Based Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 12,760 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $880k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ShellShock Live 2020 · $8.8M Phantom Brigade 2023 · $4.0M Worms Armageddon 2013 · $3.5M Worms Revolution 2012 · $2.5M Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ShellShock Live older $9.99 29,340 93% 880k $8.8M (exactly $8,793,198) kChamp Games
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Worms Armageddon older $14.99 7,851 94% 236k $3.5M (exactly $3,530,595) Team17 Digital Ltd
Worms Revolution older $14.99 5,664 86% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,547,101) Team17 Digital Ltd
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Consume Me $14.99 1,066 91% 32k $479k (exactly $479,380) Jenny Jiao Hsia, AP Thomson, Jie En Lee… (Jenny Jiao Hsia, AP Thomson, Jie En Lee, Violet W-P, Ken "coda" Snyder)
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron $12.99 563 85% 17k $219k (exactly $219,401) Kinnymoms
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Sushi Cat Legacy Collection $4.99 263 95% 7.9k $39k (exactly $39,371) Armor Games Studios
STICKER/BALL $7.99 118 90% 3.5k $28k (exactly $28,285) bilge
Arrogue · EA $11.99 71 71% 2.1k $26k (exactly $25,539) PIPAPOU
Critter Crossfire $14.99 31 90% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Evan Polekoff

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.