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Should I ship a Physics Trading game?
Physics + Trading
Of 23 developers who shipped a Physics Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $27k, ×43 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 71 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.6k (exactly $3,597) |
|---|---|
| Median | $27k (exactly $26,982) |
| Top 25% | $290k (exactly $289,703) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 56 |
| Announced | 71 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Trading; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Immersive Sim, Open World
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 16,462 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 5 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Ghosts of Tabor 2023 · EA · $6.9M 
My Garage 2026 · $2.4M 
Barn Finders 2020 · $2.4M 
Starminer 2026 · EA · $1.6M 
Old Market Simulator 2024 · $1.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Ghosts of Tabor | · EA older | $24.99 | 9,140 70% | 274k | $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) | Combat Waffle Studios |
| | My Garage | $19.99 | 4,010 90% | 120k | $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) | Viking Game Studio | |
| | Barn Finders | older | $19.99 | 3,966 82% | 119k | $2.4M (exactly $2,378,410) | Duality Games |
| | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
| | Old Market Simulator | $9.99 | 4,333 87% | 130k | $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) | Alcedo Games | |
 | Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out | $7.99 | 3,490 85% | 105k | $837k (exactly $836,553) | Digital Melody | |
 | Used Cars Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 1,147 79% | 34k | $688k (exactly $687,856) | DreamWay Games |
 | Shoppe Keep 2 | older | $9.99 | 1,527 57% | 46k | $458k (exactly $457,642) | Strange Fire |
 | Stars Reach | · EA | $29.99 | 322 52% | 9.7k | $290k (exactly $289,703) | Playable Worlds, Inc. |
 | Garden Simulator | older | $14.99 | 358 82% | 11k | $161k (exactly $160,993) | PRODUKTIVKELLER Studios |
 | A Merchant's Promise | · EA | $14.99 | 300 86% | 9.0k | $135k (exactly $134,910) | Game Draft Studio |
 | Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game | $19.99 | 157 85% | 4.7k | $94k (exactly $94,153) | TREBUCHET | |
 | Chaos Express: Delivery Simulator | · EA | $13.37 | 116 77% | 3.5k | $47k (exactly $46,528) | AVE Team |
 | Particul | $1.99 | 769 80% | 23k | $46k (exactly $45,909) | MILLION PIXELS |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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