Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Tower Defense?

Physics + Tower Defense

Of 57 developers who shipped a Physics Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×816 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 104 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 104 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $899 → $599 → $450 → $300 → $6.3k → $1.1k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,743)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 144
Announced 104
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Tower Defense; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 11,770 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dome Keeper 2022 · $10M Orcs Must Die! 3 2021 · $9.8M Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap 2025 · $3.6M Creeper World 4 2020 · $3.4M Dig or Die 2018 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Orcs Must Die! 3 older $29.99 10,930 85% 328k $9.8M (exactly $9,833,721) Robot Entertainment
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Creeper World 4 older $24.99 4,553 94% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) Knuckle Cracker
Dig or Die older $11.99 3,863 90% 116k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,521) Gaddy Games
Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ older $14.99 2,792 90% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,562) ACE Team
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Rock of Ages older $9.99 3,364 92% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,191) ACE Team
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Topple Tactics older $9.99 1,370 88% 41k $411k (exactly $410,589) Braian Strak
Dungeon Warfare 3 $18.99 679 78% 20k $387k (exactly $386,826) Excidium Inc., Valsar
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Skewer Squad $5.49 413 88% 12k $68k (exactly $68,021) Fake Owls
Pull Stay $16.99 125 97% 3.8k $64k (exactly $63,712) Nito Souji
ITER-8 $12.99 161 70% 4.8k $63k (exactly $62,742) fluckyMachine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.