Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Tabletop game?

Physics + Tabletop

Of 55 developers who shipped a Physics Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 34 developers shipped in the last year and 68 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 68 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $921 → $119 → $3.0k → $2.3k → $270 → $359 → $653 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $23k (exactly $22,984)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 159
Announced 68
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Arcade, Board Game
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,234 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Casino Simulator · EA older $9.99 786 81% 24k $236k (exactly $235,564) Lodos Games
Mahjong older $9.99 589 84% 18k $177k (exactly $176,523) Sanuk Games
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Fated Kingdom older $9.99 260 73% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,922) GameLiberty
Linkito older $14.99 152 87% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) Kalinarm
Tabletop Playground · EA older $14.99 121 79% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) Plasticity Studios
Zup! Q older $1.99 798 96% 24k $48k (exactly $47,641) Quiet River
Zup! Y $1.99 385 91% 12k $23k (exactly $22,984) Quiet River
Break Shoot $4.99 106 99% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) UPTRAND
Knock on Fate:The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
Mighty Marbles $11.99 24 91% 720 $8.6k (exactly $8,633) James Oliver
All On Board! $9.99 25 68% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) The Game Kitchen
Poly Bricks $4.99 49 73% 1.5k $7.3k (exactly $7,335) Dry Cactus
Yakiniku Party Survival $2.99 27 92% 810 $2.4k (exactly $2,422) KIMIDORI SOFT
ENDSTATION $2.99 22 95% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) bal_duin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.