Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Physics game?

Physics + Spaceships

Only 12 developers shipped a Spaceship Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starminer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 385% on the market; 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 385% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $1.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,787)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 36
Announced 26
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 385% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 2,688 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spaceflight Simulator · EA older $14.99 9,431 96% 283k $4.2M (exactly $4,241,121) Team Curiosity ✦
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Starship EVO · EA older $24.99 1,322 82% 40k $991k (exactly $991,103) Moonfire Entertainment
Flight Of Nova · EA older $29.99 537 93% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Aerovery Lab
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Gratuitous Space Battles older $14.99 568 72% 17k $255k (exactly $255,430) Positech Games
Dimensions: Dreadnought Architect · EA older $15.99 184 55% 5.5k $88k (exactly $88,265) Craft Theory
Fabular: Once Upon a Spacetime · EA older $14.99 119 80% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Spiritus Games
Psycho Starship Rampage older $9.99 128 83% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) Ballistic Frogs
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio
Periapsis: Gravity Slingshot $5.99 27 81% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) PcZ Games
A-Spec First Assault $14.99 9 55% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Digitum Software
Seven Suns of Orion $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FerroFerrous
Starship Fighters: Space Combat Simulator · EA $24.99 2 0% 60 $1.5k (exactly $1,499) Hard Shark Games
Drawn to Drift $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) FrogForgeGames
Asteroid Colony · EA $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Christian Lutnik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.