Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Solitaire

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Solitaire game?

Physics + Solitaire

Only 5 developers shipped a Physics Solitaire game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, One Step Further, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $54 against a market of $630. 6 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 6 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Physics + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $54 (exactly $54)
Top 25% $90 (exactly $90)
Top 5% $479 (exactly $479)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 35
Announced 6
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Solitaire
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,045 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $54, 1 in 4 over $90, 1 in 20 over $470.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 6 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
YEAH! YOU WANT "THOSE GAMES," RIGHT? SO HERE YOU GO! NOW, LET'S SEE YOU CLEAR THEM! older $9.99 1,268 71% 38k $380k (exactly $380,020) MONKEYCRAFT Co. Ltd.
Mahjong older $9.99 589 84% 18k $177k (exactly $176,523) Sanuk Games
SUBARACITY older $4.99 26 61% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) ESQUADRA,inc.
Mini Tone - Minimalist Puzzle older $1.99 50 78% 1.5k $3.0k (exactly $2,985) Mens Sana Interactive
Spicy Fruit older $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Juice Blade
Super Korotama older $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Catness Game Studios
Fastlane Bowling older $2.99 16 25% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) LAB Rats Game
Solitaire - Cat Pirate Portrait older $1.99 24 58% 720 $1.4k (exactly $1,433) Boogygames Studios
Vectors older $1.99 21 100% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Hanna Hanna Games
Artur's Pinball older $0.99 31 74% 930 $921 (exactly $921) Artur Rezende
One Step Further $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) SlidMount
WIND CAT SOLITAIRE $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Kazeneko Games
Whooshy Dragon $1.79 1 100% 30 $54 (exactly $54) Nicolas Porion
Ding! Pocket It!: Rogue Simulator $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Handcrank Workshop
FUNDAMENTA $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Rangel Oblivion

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.