Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Sokoban?

Physics + Sokoban

Of 23 developers who shipped a Physics Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 16 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $298 → $60 → $1.0k → $1.1k → $119 → $240 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 5% $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 65
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Sokoban; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 216 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $5.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Akin 2016 · $75k He Who Watches 2026 · $65k Time Master 2022 · $29k Brain Break 2020 · $25k Roody:2d 2023 · EA · $22k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Akin older $4.99 498 86% 15k $75k (exactly $74,551) ThinkOfGames
He Who Watches $19.99 109 96% 3.3k $65k (exactly $65,367) Bobby Vanden
Time Master older $14.99 64 95% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) MorpheusZ
Brain Break older $4.99 164 75% 4.9k $25k (exactly $24,551) Astralis Games
Roody:2d · EA older $14.99 48 97% 1.4k $22k (exactly $21,586) redinator2000
Frame - Portals on Steroids older $16.99 35 91% 1.1k $18k (exactly $17,840) MechanicsDriven
Meet me at NooN older $9.99 55 100% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Pandaroo Interactive
Forklift Load older $2.99 130 83% 3.9k $12k (exactly $11,661) KIMIDORI SOFT
Don't Touch this Button! older $3.99 88 93% 2.6k $11k (exactly $10,534) 9 Eyes Game Studio
Underground Keeper older $4.99 41 70% 1.2k $6.1k (exactly $6,138) Render System
Do You even Forklift? $7.99 25 100% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Garage 5
Hogtie $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Alacrity Games
Watermelon (with a Broken Head) Game $2.99 21 80% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) SillyOven
Crossed Wires $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Aleth Labs
Ornate Machina: The Thousand Trials $2.99 12 100% 360 $1.1k (exactly $1,076) 大隆盛工作室
The Portsmoor Abysm $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Renons Studios
ARROW WORLD $4.59 4 100% 120 $551 (exactly $551) ATOKESHI
Morphing Blocks $0.99 17 100% 510 $505 (exactly $505) J. TAO
Color Block Escape $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) FWGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.