Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Shoot 'Em Up?

Physics + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 85 developers who shipped a Physics Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 49 developers shipped in the last year and 110 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 110 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $748 → $899 → $2.1k → $299 → $300 → $539 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 5% $9.0k (exactly $8,997)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 290
Announced 110
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 2,899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $8.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. Nearly all of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crysis 3 Remastered 2022 · $7.0M HARD BULLET 2020 · EA · $3.5M Kill It With Fire 2020 · $1.6M Beyond Sandbox 2026 · EA · $733k Intrusion 2 2012 · $500k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
Beyond Sandbox · EA $19.99 1,223 39% 37k $733k (exactly $733,433) Atlas XR
Intrusion 2 older $9.99 1,667 93% 50k $500k (exactly $499,600) Aleksei Abramenko
SNKRX older $2.99 4,198 94% 126k $377k (exactly $376,561) a327ex
Airscape - The Fall of Gravity older $4.99 2,295 81% 69k $344k (exactly $343,562) Cross-Product
Disassembly 3D older $29.99 309 81% 9.3k $278k (exactly $278,007) Khor Chin Heong
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
LONN older $29.99 201 64% 6.0k $181k (exactly $180,840) SixSense Studios
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
Deadliest Pigeon $6.99 99 93% 3.0k $21k (exactly $20,760) Rusty Rex
CPU Invaders - 3i Atlas $4.99 77 98% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,527) Microblast Games
PIZZA WESTERN 🍕 $29.99 10 90% 300 $9.0k (exactly $8,997) Lola Fisher
Kamikaze Empire $12.99 21 100% 630 $8.2k (exactly $8,184) Kamikaze Kobo
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
Slingbot Survivors $5.99 28 96% 840 $5.0k (exactly $5,032) Clover Bite
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.