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Should I ship a Science Physics game?
Physics + Science
Of 95 developers who shipped a Science Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2205 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 157 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $26k (exactly $26,374) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 95 |
| Released games | 288 |
| Announced | 157 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 63,863 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Portal 2 2011 · $117M 
Portal 2007 · $52M 
Kerbal Space Program 2 2023 · EA · $42M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
| | Portal | older | $9.99 | 173,594 98% | 5.2M | $52M (exactly $52,026,122) | Valve |
| | Kerbal Space Program 2 | · EA older | $49.99 | 27,930 26% | 838k | $42M (exactly $41,886,621) | Intercept Games |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Forza Motorsport | older | $69.99 | 12,148 51% | 364k | $26M (exactly $25,507,156) | Turn 10 |
 | Universe Sandbox | · EA older | $29.99 | 27,843 96% | 835k | $25M (exactly $25,050,347) | Giant Army |
 | Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game | · EA older | $29.99 | 16,815 93% | 504k | $15M (exactly $15,128,456) | Camshaft Software Ltd |
 | Stationeers | · EA older | $34.99 | 8,597 88% | 258k | $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) | RocketWerkz |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | Aviassembly | · EA | $9.99 | 9,323 96% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) | Jelle Booij |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator | $34.99 | 1,319 97% | 40k | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) | Lyra Creative | |
 | Horsey Game | $9.99 | 2,911 97% | 87k | $872k (exactly $872,427) | Captain Games | |
 | Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager | · EA | $17.99 | 1,252 87% | 38k | $676k (exactly $675,704) | SpaceOps |
 | Bionic Bay | $19.99 | 750 84% | 23k | $450k (exactly $449,775) | Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy | |
 | Schrodinger's Cat Burglar | $19.99 | 613 97% | 18k | $368k (exactly $367,616) | Abandoned Sheep | |
 | Machinika: Atlas | $11.99 | 574 76% | 17k | $206k (exactly $206,468) | Littlefield Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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