Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Physics
Should I ship a Physics Sandbox?
Sandbox + Physics
Of 499 developers who shipped a Physics Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 874 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2949 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 874 games are announced against 332 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,775) |
| Top 25% | $52k (exactly $51,782) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 499 |
| Released games | 1,381 |
| Announced | 874 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 332,905 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 209 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 874 games are announced against 332 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M 
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | BeamNG.drive | · EA older | $24.99 | 388,236 97% | 12M | $291M (exactly $291,060,529) | BeamNG |
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
 | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | People Playground | older | $9.99 | 298,158 98% | 8.9M | $89M (exactly $89,357,953) | mestiez |
 | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
 | Just Cause™ 3 | older | $19.99 | 104,140 85% | 3.1M | $62M (exactly $62,452,758) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Wobbly Life | $24.99 | 33,034 97% | 991k | $25M (exactly $24,765,590) | RubberBandGames | |
 | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades | $19.99 | 22,774 97% | 683k | $14M (exactly $13,657,568) | RUST LTD. | |
 | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
 | Waterpark Simulator | $12.99 | 13,280 96% | 398k | $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) | CayPlay |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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