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Should I ship a Physics Sailing game?
Physics + Sailing
Only 18 developers shipped a Physics Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Last Caretaker, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×22027 the market median. Revenue is up 2910% on the market; 41 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
| Top 25% | $52k (exactly $51,782) |
| Top 5% | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 60 |
| Announced | 41 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2910% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Sailing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Sandbox
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 14,287 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M 
The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M 
Breakwaters: Crystal Tides 2021 · EA · $519k 
Sail Forth 2022 · $362k 
Virtual Sailor NG 2022 · $158k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
| | Breakwaters: Crystal Tides | · EA older | $19.99 | 866 63% | 26k | $519k (exactly $519,340) | Soaring Pixels Games |
| | Sail Forth | older | $19.99 | 604 92% | 18k | $362k (exactly $362,219) | Festive Vector |
| | Virtual Sailor NG | older | $39.99 | 132 90% | 4.0k | $158k (exactly $158,360) | Ilan Papini |
 | Trash Sailors: Co-Op Trash Raft Simulator | older | $19.99 | 187 67% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $112,144) | fluckyMachine |
 | Ships 2017 | older | $19.99 | 156 32% | 4.7k | $94k (exactly $93,553) | FragOut |
 | Professional Ship Simulator | · EA | $36.99 | 81 62% | 2.4k | $90k (exactly $89,886) | SWE Systems |
 | VR Sailing | $7.99 | 307 96% | 9.2k | $74k (exactly $73,588) | HFRK. | |
 | Hydrofoil Generation | older | $19.99 | 103 84% | 3.1k | $62k (exactly $61,769) | Jaxx Vane Studio |
 | Boat Together | $4.99 | 364 76% | 11k | $54k (exactly $54,491) | Beaked Games | |
 | ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles | · EA | $8.99 | 192 96% | 5.8k | $52k (exactly $51,782) | Tomas Sala |
 | Global Magnates: Shipping Tycoon | $12.99 | 116 64% | 3.5k | $45k (exactly $45,205) | Aquila Chengdu | |
 | Surfers Code | $12.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $4.7k (exactly $4,676) | E Marx | |
 | Paragliding Simulator | · EA | $24.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $3.7k (exactly $3,748) | Evan Burrows |
 | Unto the Aurora | $4.99 | 22 86% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | Arboreta Games | |
 | Speedboat Simulator | · EA | $8.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | Hard Shark Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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