Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Runner?

Physics + Runner

Of 161 developers who shipped a Physics Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 148 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 78 developers shipped in the last year and 148 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 148 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 161
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $475 → $119 → $239 → $239 → $299 → $240 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 161
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $839 (exactly $839)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,078)
Developers, 2 yr 161
Released games 462
Announced 148
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,727 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $830, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 148 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

STRIDE 2022 · $1.2M ALTF4 2021 · $848k Climber Animals: Together 2024 · $720k Shio 2017 · $457k Bionic Bay 2025 · $450k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Climber Animals: Together older $3.99 6,014 73% 180k $720k (exactly $719,876) Devotion Interactive
Shio older $11.99 1,270 78% 38k $457k (exactly $456,819) Coconut Island Studio
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
YEAH! YOU WANT "THOSE GAMES," RIGHT? SO HERE YOU GO! NOW, LET'S SEE YOU CLEAR THEM! older $9.99 1,268 71% 38k $380k (exactly $380,020) MONKEYCRAFT Co. Ltd.
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Nippon Marathon older $14.99 274 89% 8.2k $123k (exactly $123,218) Onion Soup Interactive
Hans older $4.99 741 85% 22k $111k (exactly $110,928) at0m
Orbt XL older $0.99 3,230 96% 97k $96k (exactly $95,931) Adamvision Studios
Sensory Overload $9.99 162 93% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) Pancake Studios
Sushi Cat Legacy Collection $4.99 263 95% 7.9k $39k (exactly $39,371) Armor Games Studios
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
SuperSorry $5.99 115 74% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) Sun Studio
Zardy's Cave $7.99 84 80% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Full Trek Media
SPHERE ROLLER $49.99 11 100% 330 $16k (exactly $16,497) Gamesforgames
HoloRun $4.99 76 57% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) Pixfox
Steal The Pig $4.99 74 85% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) BAA Games
Goblintown: Really Hard Driving Game · EA $4.99 65 89% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) BiG INC. CO. LLC.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.