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Should I ship a Physics Roguelite?
Physics + Roguelite
Of 215 developers who shipped a Physics Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 411 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×880 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 411 games are announced against 151 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $269 (exactly $269) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,512) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 5% | $553k (exactly $552,946) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 215 |
| Released games | 361 |
| Announced | 411 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Strategy
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 50,548 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 411 games are announced against 151 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Paint the Town Red 2021 · $17M 
Descenders 2019 · $15M 
Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M 
Peglin 2024 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Paint the Town Red | older | $19.99 | 29,141 96% | 874k | $17M (exactly $17,475,858) | South East Games |
| | Descenders | older | $24.99 | 19,836 95% | 595k | $15M (exactly $14,871,049) | RageSquid |
| | Soulstone Survivors | $14.99 | 25,749 91% | 772k | $12M (exactly $11,579,325) | Game Smithing Limited | |
| | Peglin | older | $19.99 | 16,626 83% | 499k | $10M (exactly $9,970,612) | Red Nexus Games Inc. |
 | ROUNDS | older | $5.99 | 35,738 95% | 1.1M | $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) | Landfall |
 | We Who Are About To Die | · EA older | $21.99 | 8,134 88% | 244k | $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) | Jordy Lakiere |
 | Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap | $29.99 | 4,053 69% | 122k | $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) | Robot Entertainment | |
 | UNDERDOGS | older | $29.99 | 2,788 97% | 84k | $2.5M (exactly $2,508,364) | One Hamsa |
 | VOID/BREAKER | · EA | $29.99 | 2,506 91% | 75k | $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) | Stubby Games |
 | Dungeon Clawler | $14.99 | 3,716 88% | 111k | $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon | |
 | Sir, We Have an Orc Problem | $9.99 | 4,123 86% | 124k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) | Mumpitz Games | |
 | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
 | Omelet You Cook | $14.99 | 1,523 97% | 46k | $685k (exactly $684,893) | Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose | |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Rune Dice | $14.99 | 1,267 79% | 38k | $570k (exactly $569,770) | Smart Raven Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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