Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Resource Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Resource Management game?

Physics + Resource Management

Of 159 developers who shipped a Physics Resource Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 396 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×4.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1808 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 396 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 396 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Resource Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 159
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $22k → $2.7k → $4.6k → $3.6k → $3.2k → $5.6k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Resource Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 159
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,055)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,526)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Developers, 2 yr 159
Released games 312
Announced 396
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Resource Management
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Resource Management; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 93,499 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 396 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Timberborn 2026 · $40M The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M Cooking Simulator 2019 · $11M Dome Keeper 2022 · $10M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Cooking Simulator older $19.99 17,837 84% 535k $11M (exactly $10,696,849) Big Cheese Studio
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Cash Cleaner Simulator $19.99 7,334 92% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) Mind Control Games
Out of Ore older $24.99 3,978 85% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,982,307) North Modding Company AB
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
Recycling Center Simulator $19.99 2,594 84% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622) Balas Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps
Laundry Store Simulator $11.99 1,804 89% 54k $649k (exactly $648,899) Akhir Pekan Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.