Should I ship a PvP Physics game?
PvP + Physics
Of 404 developers who shipped a PvP Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 918 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 918 games are announced against 258 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 15% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $5.9k (exactly $5,920) |
| Top 5% | $451k (exactly $451,087) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 404 |
| Released games | 1,253 |
| Announced | 918 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Sports
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 100,381 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 209 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 918 games are announced against 258 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M 
Space Engineers 2019 · $60M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO | $49.99 | 50,395 86% | 1.5M | $76M (exactly $75,577,382) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
| | Space Engineers | older | $19.99 | 100,533 89% | 3.0M | $60M (exactly $60,289,640) | Keen Software House |
 | Bodycam | · EA older | $33.32 | 60,179 80% | 1.8M | $60M (exactly $60,154,928) | Reissad Studio |
 | CarX Drift Racing Online | older | $16.99 | 82,720 95% | 2.5M | $42M (exactly $42,162,384) | CarX Technologies, LLC |
 | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
 | Party Animals | older | $19.99 | 56,043 81% | 1.7M | $34M (exactly $33,608,987) | Recreate Games |
 | Gang Beasts | older | $19.99 | 54,880 85% | 1.6M | $33M (exactly $32,911,536) | Boneloaf, Rocket Science |
 | Assetto Corsa EVO | · EA | $39.99 | 16,545 60% | 496k | $20M (exactly $19,849,036) | KUNOS Simulazioni |
 | Wreckfest 2 | · EA | $34.99 | 5,578 73% | 167k | $5.9M (exactly $5,855,227) | Bugbear |
 | Super Battle Golf | $12.99 | 9,325 93% | 280k | $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) | Brimstone | |
 | ScooterFlow | $19.99 | 3,975 95% | 119k | $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) | UncannyKiwi Limited | |
 | NASCAR 25 | $39.99 | 1,768 72% | 53k | $2.1M (exactly $2,121,070) | iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, LLC | |
 | ANEURISM IV | $9.99 | 5,686 75% | 171k | $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) | Vellocet | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Machine Party | $7.99 | 4,199 87% | 126k | $1.0M (exactly $1,006,500) | Mike Klubnika, GDeavid | |
 | RIDE 6 | $59.99 | 549 68% | 16k | $988k (exactly $988,035) | Milestone S.r.l. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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