Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Puzzle Platformer?

Physics + Puzzle Platformer

Of 410 developers who shipped a Physics Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 521 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 230 developers shipped in the last year and 521 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 521 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 410
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $479 → $598 → $419 → $599 → $359 → $449 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 410
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $42k (exactly $41,940)
Developers, 2 yr 410
Released games 1,380
Announced 521
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Platformer, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 8,741 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 222 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 521 games are announced against 230 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Portal 2 2011 · $117M Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M Portal 2007 · $52M Superliminal 2020 · $17M LIMBO 2011 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Superliminal older $19.99 28,428 94% 853k $17M (exactly $17,048,272) Pillow Castle
LIMBO older $12.49 40,672 91% 1.2M $15M (exactly $15,239,798) Playdead
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Trine 2: Complete Story older $19.99 15,273 95% 458k $9.2M (exactly $9,159,218) Frozenbyte
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
LEGO® Voyagers $24.99 1,859 88% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) Light Brick Studio
Carry The Glass $4.99 2,839 75% 85k $425k (exactly $424,998) Çağatay Demir, Enes Kaplan
Schrodinger's Cat Burglar $19.99 613 97% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) Abandoned Sheep
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition $6.99 733 66% 22k $154k (exactly $153,710) Evil Boobs Cult
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
Log Riders $4.99 660 70% 20k $99k (exactly $98,802) Bluespy Studios
Moving Houses $13.99 232 72% 7.0k $97k (exactly $97,370) Gordon Little

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.