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Should I ship a Physics Puzzle game?
Physics + Puzzle
Of 747 developers who shipped a Physics Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 967 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 434 developers shipped in the last year and 967 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $117 (exactly $117) |
|---|---|
| Median | $360 (exactly $360) |
| Top 25% | $2.5k (exactly $2,507) |
| Top 5% | $65k (exactly $64,690) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 747 |
| Released games | 2,584 |
| Announced | 967 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 59,418 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 383 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 967 games are announced against 434 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Portal 2 2011 · $117M 
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M 
Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M 
Portal 2007 · $52M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
| | Half-Life 2 | older | $9.99 | 202,782 97% | 6.1M | $61M (exactly $60,773,765) | Valve |
| | Portal | older | $9.99 | 173,594 98% | 5.2M | $52M (exactly $52,026,122) | Valve |
 | BONEWORKS | older | $29.99 | 34,141 92% | 1.0M | $31M (exactly $30,716,658) | Stress Level Zero |
 | BONELAB | older | $39.99 | 18,670 82% | 560k | $22M (exactly $22,398,399) | Stress Level Zero |
 | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
 | Hardspace: Shipbreaker | older | $34.99 | 19,431 89% | 583k | $20M (exactly $20,396,721) | Blackbird Interactive |
 | CARRION | older | $19.99 | 33,270 94% | 998k | $20M (exactly $19,952,019) | Phobia Game Studio |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | Cat Mail Co. | $14.99 | 6,289 92% | 189k | $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) | Maracas Studio | |
 | Cheap Car Repair | $19.69 | 3,603 91% | 108k | $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) | Little Dog Games | |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | POPUCOM | $19.99 | 3,432 87% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) | Hypergryph | |
 | Hozy | $14.99 | 4,128 80% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,856,362) | Come On Studio | |
 | LEGO® Voyagers | $24.99 | 1,859 88% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) | Light Brick Studio | |
 | DrainSim | · EA | $14.99 | 2,586 91% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) | CodePeas |
 | World of Goo 2 | $29.99 | 801 87% | 24k | $721k (exactly $720,660) | 2D BOY, Tomorrow Corporation | |
 | Turbo Dismount® 2 | $19.99 | 753 95% | 23k | $452k (exactly $451,574) | Secret Exit Ltd. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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