Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Physics game?

Physics + Psychological Horror

Of 281 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 319 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×327 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 319 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 319 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 281
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $1.3k → $3.4k → $1.4k → $2.4k → $1.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $6.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 281
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,722)
Top 5% $205k (exactly $205,149)
Developers, 2 yr 281
Released games 631
Announced 319
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 177,773 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 155 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 319 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
City Car Driving older $24.99 33,612 82% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,198,916) Forward Development, Ltd.
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy older $7.99 75,118 82% 2.3M $18M (exactly $18,005,785) Bennett Foddy
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Superliminal older $19.99 28,428 94% 853k $17M (exactly $17,048,272) Pillow Castle
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
Amnesia: The Dark Descent older $19.99 20,420 95% 613k $12M (exactly $12,245,874) Frictional Games
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Baby Steps $19.99 2,355 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
City Car Driving 2.0 · EA $29.99 1,198 60% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,077,841) Forward Development, Ltd.
Machine Party $7.99 4,199 87% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,006,500) Mike Klubnika, GDeavid
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.