Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Physics game?

Physics + Psychological

Of 66 developers who shipped a Psychological Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $92k, ×147 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 101 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 101 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $980 → $24k → $449 → $900 → $1.3k → $1.2k → $600 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,591)
Top 5% $92k (exactly $92,008)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 136
Announced 101
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Walking Simulator, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,931 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $92k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BONELAB 2022 · $22M Superliminal 2020 · $17M Viewfinder 2023 · $8.9M Shady Part of Me 2020 · $1.1M Hyperbolica 2022 · $476k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Superliminal older $19.99 28,428 94% 853k $17M (exactly $17,048,272) Pillow Castle
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
Shady Part of Me older $14.99 2,554 93% 77k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,534) Douze Dixièmes
Hyperbolica older $12.99 1,222 84% 37k $476k (exactly $476,213) CodeParade
4D Golf older $19.99 775 98% 23k $465k (exactly $464,767) CodeParade
A Fisherman's Tale older $9.99 1,085 94% 33k $325k (exactly $325,174) InnerspaceVR
Of Lies and Rain $39.99 171 79% 5.1k $205k (exactly $205,149) Castello Inc
That Which Gave Chase older $4.99 1,102 91% 33k $165k (exactly $164,969) Aslak
WE ARE SO DEAD · EA $7.99 672 73% 20k $161k (exactly $161,078) REAL PLAYERS
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition $6.99 733 66% 22k $154k (exactly $153,710) Evil Boobs Cult
Cat Named Mojave $9.99 307 95% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Stargazers Studios
Japan Stigmatized Property -日本事故物件監視協会- $7.99 360 74% 11k $86k (exactly $86,292) 日本事故物件監視協会
Crawling Angels $9.99 202 96% 6.1k $61k (exactly $60,539) ItsTheTalia, Autumn West
Idea Fix $9.99 128 92% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) ZuitLabs
Lost Luminosity $3.99 235 83% 7.1k $28k (exactly $28,130) Ember Wing Games
Cognition Method $19.99 44 77% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Team Cognition
Jump the Track $9.99 79 96% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Seed by Seed

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.