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Should I ship a Physics Programming game?
Physics + Programming
Only 17 developers shipped a Physics Programming game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×325 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $47,952) |
| Top 5% | $204k (exactly $204,007) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 65 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Programming
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Level Editor, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,227 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M 
Juno: New Origins 2023 · $1.9M 
Arctic Eggs 2024 · $1.6M 
Braid, Anniversary Edition 2024 · $1.1M 
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor 2020 · $1.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | Juno: New Origins | older | $19.99 | 3,085 89% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) | Jundroo, LLC |
| | Arctic Eggs | older | $9.99 | 5,343 95% | 160k | $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) | The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex) |
| | Braid, Anniversary Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,761 92% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) | Thekla, Inc. |
| | Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor | older | $19.99 | 1,758 78% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) | Stray Fawn Studio |
 | Main Assembly | older | $19.99 | 1,004 83% | 30k | $602k (exactly $602,099) | Bad Yolk Games |
 | Homebrew - Patent Unknown | · EA older | $14.99 | 828 71% | 25k | $372k (exactly $372,352) | Copybugpaste |
 | Contraption Maker | older | $12.99 | 922 92% | 28k | $359k (exactly $359,303) | Kevin Ryan |
 | Planetoid Pioneers | older | $19.99 | 362 59% | 11k | $217k (exactly $217,091) | Data Realms |
 | JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator | $17.99 | 378 76% | 11k | $204k (exactly $204,007) | Prof. Scherer | |
 | The Bibites: Digital Life | · EA | $9.99 | 218 96% | 6.5k | $65k (exactly $65,335) | Omnia Studios |
 | MainFrames | $12.99 | 166 88% | 5.0k | $65k (exactly $64,690) | Assoupi | |
 | I Fetch Rocks | $15.99 | 110 94% | 3.3k | $53k (exactly $52,767) | SarumXR | |
 | Age Of Warbots | $9.99 | 160 83% | 4.8k | $48k (exactly $47,952) | VDimension | |
 | Nuclear Design Bureau | · EA | $9.99 | 88 79% | 2.6k | $26k (exactly $26,374) | Design Bureau KB-11 |
 | Beyond the Doors | · EA | $8.99 | 75 72% | 2.3k | $20k (exactly $20,228) | Dream Error |
 | Typhon: Bot vs Bot | · EA | $19.99 | 12 75% | 360 | $7.2k (exactly $7,196) | Brightshade Games |
 | Clank-Robotics | $6.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) | Clank Studios | |
 | GizmoLab VR | $9.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | De Martini Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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