Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Platformer?

Physics + Platformer

Of 850 developers who shipped a Physics Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,033 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 463 developers shipped in the last year and 1,033 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 1,033 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 850
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $600 → $479 → $359 → $599 → $449 → $418 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 850
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $446 (exactly $446)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Top 5% $34k (exactly $34,354)
Developers, 2 yr 850
Released games 2,429
Announced 1,033
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, 3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 317,825 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $34k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 490 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,033 games are announced against 463 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Portal 2 2011 · $117M PEAK 2025 · $72M Portal 2007 · $52M Rain World 2017 · $35M Gorilla Tag 2023 · $32M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy older $7.99 75,118 82% 2.3M $18M (exactly $18,005,785) Bennett Foddy
LIMBO older $12.49 40,672 91% 1.2M $15M (exactly $15,239,798) Playdead
My Friend Pedro older $19.99 24,570 95% 737k $15M (exactly $14,734,629) DeadToast Entertainment
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
Pratfall $7.99 2,797 90% 84k $670k (exactly $670,441) Quad Head
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Carry The Glass $4.99 2,839 75% 85k $425k (exactly $424,998) Çağatay Demir, Enes Kaplan
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Twin Shot Deluxe $9.99 1,167 95% 35k $350k (exactly $349,750) Nitrome Limited
Egging On $14.99 747 74% 22k $336k (exactly $335,926) Egobounds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.