Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Perma Death

Of 51 developers who shipped a Perma Death Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 127 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 127 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $1.2k → $13k → $27k → $18k → $3.6k → $899 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $76k (exactly $76,449)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 132
Announced 127
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Perma Death; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 10,933 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Invisible, Inc. older $19.99 5,096 91% 153k $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) Klei Entertainment
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Dark Deity older $24.99 2,652 72% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,988,204) Sword & Axe LLC
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
Astral Throne $19.99 270 80% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) Zero Sun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.