Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Perma Death
Should I ship a Perma Death Sandbox?
Sandbox + Perma Death
Of 44 developers who shipped a Perma Death Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3281 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 82 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $17,991) |
| Top 5% | $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 44 |
| Released games | 126 |
| Announced | 82 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Survival
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 126,166 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition 2020 · $53M 
My Summer Car 2025 · $49M 
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Don't Starve 2013 · $29M 
State of Decay: YOSE 2015 · $6.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition | older | $29.99 | 59,156 83% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,222,653) | Undead Labs |
| | My Summer Car | $14.99 | 108,503 94% | 3.3M | $49M (exactly $48,793,799) | Amistech Games | |
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Don't Starve | older | $9.99 | 97,007 96% | 2.9M | $29M (exactly $29,072,998) | Klei Entertainment |
| | State of Decay: YOSE | older | $19.99 | 10,526 82% | 316k | $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) | Undead Labs |
 | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
 | Day of Dragons | · EA older | $19.99 | 6,278 68% | 188k | $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) | Beawesome Games |
 | Blackthorn Arena | older | $24.99 | 3,477 69% | 104k | $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) | PersonaeGame Studio |
 | Card Survival: Tropical Island | older | $24.99 | 2,962 94% | 89k | $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) | WinterSpring Games |
 | Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite | $9.99 | 6,876 76% | 206k | $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) | Odd Dreams Digital | |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | The Monster Breeder | $29.99 | 272 91% | 8.2k | $245k (exactly $244,718) | Fantasy Creations | |
 | EverRail | · EA | $14.99 | 372 69% | 11k | $167k (exactly $167,288) | Aesir Interactive |
 | 硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) | $13.99 | 343 77% | 10k | $144k (exactly $143,957) | Moshow Games | |
 | A Merchant's Promise | · EA | $14.99 | 300 86% | 9.0k | $135k (exactly $134,910) | Game Draft Studio |
 | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
 | ploink | $12.99 | 91 96% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,463) | Pyrocreep |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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