Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Perma Death game?

PvP + Perma Death

Of 29 developers who shipped a PvP Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450. 89 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 125% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 89 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $2.5k → $3.8k → $839 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,855)
Top 5% $580k (exactly $580,268)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 77
Announced 89
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 17,836 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $840, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Marauders 2022 · EA · $12M Spelunky 2 2020 · $12M LOCKDOWN Protocol 2025 · $5.0M Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
Bravery and Greed older $19.99 640 78% 19k $384k (exactly $383,808) Rekka Games
Shovel Knight Pocket Dungeon older $19.99 518 91% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) VINE, Yacht Club Games
Age of Fear 2: The Chaos Lord GOLD older $24.99 273 80% 8.2k $205k (exactly $204,668) Leslaw Sliwko
Eternal Sword Tomb · EA $8.99 68 77% 2.0k $18k (exactly $18,340) 阿郎
Darkchaser: Battletide $5.99 84 73% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) DB Studio
One More 6ix $1.99 147 99% 4.4k $8.8k (exactly $8,776) Crazish Games
Synthwave Dream '85 $3.99 48 100% 1.4k $5.7k (exactly $5,746) LoneDev
Minesweeper Together $2.99 64 95% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) anchikai
VELATO · EA $8.99 18 100% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) VELATO
Airlock Arena: Profit or Perish $11.99 12 91% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) Mason Norvell, John Norvell
Dough or Die · EA $7.99 16 100% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Soundbyte Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.