Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Party Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Party Game Sandbox?

Sandbox + Party Game

Of 33 developers who shipped a Party Game Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $510, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $40k, ×65 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 91 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 91 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Party Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $7.5k → $839 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Party Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $510 (exactly $510)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,719)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $40,553)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 50
Announced 91
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 270% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Party Game
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Party Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Co-op, Online Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,484 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $510, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $40k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Super Bunny Man older $14.99 10,143 85% 304k $4.6M (exactly $4,561,307) Catobyte
Ale & Tale Tavern older $14.99 8,692 88% 261k $3.9M (exactly $3,908,792) Scienart Games
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
IRMÃO Grande & Brasileiro 2 older $19.99 1,392 97% 42k $835k (exactly $834,782) Virgula Leal
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
A Gummy's Life older $19.99 194 81% 5.8k $116k (exactly $116,342) EP Games®
Baking Bad · EA $10.99 123 32% 3.7k $41k (exactly $40,553) FunkyArmor
Jumping Jazz Cats $8.99 148 74% 4.4k $40k (exactly $39,916) Le Catnip Collective
Scribble Bots $6.99 116 87% 3.5k $24k (exactly $24,325) Mr Mango Games
Sitting Ducks $7.99 75 86% 2.3k $18k (exactly $17,978) The Gang Studio
OK Boomer · EA $7.99 70 77% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,779) Pugsy Studios
Wreck Runners $9.99 41 73% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) Disruptive Games
All On Board! $9.99 25 68% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) The Game Kitchen
Crazy Hotel Together $7.49 21 76% 630 $4.7k (exactly $4,719) Prismatic Games
Barbecue $4.95 29 68% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,306) WMB

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.