Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Party Game?

Physics + Party Game

Of 212 developers who shipped a Physics Party Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 557 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×127 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 557 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 557 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Party Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 212
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $10k → $9.9k → $1.6k → $4.7k → $2.6k → $802 (still earning) → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Party Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 212
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,060)
Developers, 2 yr 212
Released games 351
Announced 557
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 440% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Party Game
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Party Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Online Co-Op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 17,656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 557 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Party Animals 2023 · $34M Gang Beasts 2017 · $33M ROUNDS 2021 · $6.4M Tricky Towers 2016 · $5.6M Super Bunny Man 2023 · $4.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Gang Beasts older $19.99 54,880 85% 1.6M $33M (exactly $32,911,536) Boneloaf, Rocket Science
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Tricky Towers older $14.99 12,390 90% 372k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,783) WeirdBeard
Super Bunny Man older $14.99 10,143 85% 304k $4.6M (exactly $4,561,307) Catobyte
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
Rubber Bandits older $9.99 5,628 84% 169k $1.7M (exactly $1,686,712) Flashbulb
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
Machine Party $7.99 4,199 87% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,006,500) Mike Klubnika, GDeavid
Boomerang Fu older $14.99 1,805 97% 54k $812k (exactly $811,708) Cranky Watermelon
The House Always Wins $12.99 866 85% 26k $337k (exactly $337,480) Toxic Studio
A Gentlemen's Dispute $7.99 1,199 94% 36k $287k (exactly $287,400) Blast Furnace Games
WE ARE SO DEAD · EA $7.99 672 73% 20k $161k (exactly $161,078) REAL PLAYERS
Motion Soccer PRO $19.99 223 79% 6.7k $134k (exactly $133,733) Ivanovich Games
Choppy Cuts $16.99 261 75% 7.8k $133k (exactly $133,032) Moco Studios I
Ultimate Sheep Raccoon $19.99 205 45% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Clever Endeavour Games
Beetleball $7.99 354 93% 11k $85k (exactly $84,854) Bugfight Studio
Frog Sqwad 🐸 $7.99 352 72% 11k $84k (exactly $84,374) Panic Stations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.