Games › Physics › Physics + Outbreak Sim
Should I ship a Physics Outbreak Sim?
Physics + Outbreak Sim
Only 11 developers shipped a Physics Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Genesis of a Small God, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 11 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $419 (exactly $419) |
| Top 25% | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
| Top 5% | $33k (exactly $32,922) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 11 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Outbreak Sim
- Price point
- $3.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 212 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Genesis of a Small God 2024 · $33k 
SuperSorry 2025 · $21k 
Art of Destruction 2022 · $12k 
Try to Fly 2022 · $3.9k 
Propa. 2025 · $2.6k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Genesis of a Small God | $17.99 | 61 80% | 1.8k | $33k (exactly $32,922) | Pierre Nury | |
| | SuperSorry | $5.99 | 115 74% | 3.5k | $21k (exactly $20,666) | Sun Studio | |
| | Art of Destruction | older | $4.99 | 79 78% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $11,826) | ZHANG FAN |
| | Try to Fly | older | $9.99 | 13 53% | 390 | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) | BoomBit |
| | Propa. | $7.99 | 11 54% | 330 | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) | Contagio Games | |
 | Vaccine Delivery Simulator | older | $4.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $1.8k (exactly $1,796) | TakeThem.Games (Creative) |
 | KAIJU MONSTER VR | older | $9.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | VRAAR S.A. |
 | SNOTROCKET™ | · EA | $3.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $838 (exactly $838) | Sunscorched Studios |
 | Manifest369 power defence | · EA | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | ManifestStudios |
 | Solvizz | $6.99 | 2 0% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | Oulda | |
 | Keyboard Simulator | $3.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $359 (exactly $359) | Arbothonas | |
 | Snailbreak | $2.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $179 (exactly $179) | Screaming potato games | |
 | NEH | · EA | $0.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $178 (exactly $178) | Cult of Code |
 | Chicken Up | $1.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | Chunky Cats Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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