Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Third-Person Shooter

Only 11 developers shipped a Third-Person Shooter Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Palworld, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120k against a market of $1.3k. 26 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 92.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 26 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $69k (exactly $68,609)
Median $125k (exactly $124,871)
Top 25% $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715)
Top 5% $371M (exactly $370,628,716)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 38
Announced 26
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Third-Person Shooter
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 453,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $69k, median $120k, 1 in 4 over $1.3M, 1 in 20 over $370M.

3 in 10 developers made under $69k. 3 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
DeadPoly · EA older $9.99 5,384 78% 162k $1.6M (exactly $1,613,585) TFL Games
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Plains of Pain · EA older $19.99 956 82% 29k $573k (exactly $573,313) Cobra Byte Digital
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
How To Survive: Third Person Standalone older $9.99 1,134 56% 34k $340k (exactly $339,860) Eko Software
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Not Quite Dead: Open World Survival · EA $12.99 218 61% 6.5k $85k (exactly $84,955) Voidecho Studio
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios
World Crafter TD $14.99 70 48% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) Tbjbu2
Shatterland $7.99 40 62% 1.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,588) LastPulse Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.