Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Physics

Only 8 developers shipped a Physics Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lost Skies, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180k, ×136 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $18k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×1375 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 135.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $18k (exactly $17,991)
Median $183k (exactly $182,908)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 25
Announced 27
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Physics
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $18.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 113,371 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $18k, median $180k, 1 in 4 over $1.1M, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $18k. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  6. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  7. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  8. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
TerraTech older $24.99 20,564 92% 617k $15M (exactly $15,416,831) Payload Studios
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Dig or Die older $11.99 3,863 90% 116k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,521) Gaddy Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
Primitier $19.99 305 94% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ota Mato
Strayed · EA older $14.99 402 76% 12k $181k (exactly $180,779) Crustacean Interactive
vrkshop older $19.99 160 83% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) scopatgames
Grim $19.99 131 53% 3.9k $79k (exactly $78,561) Spoonfed Interactive
Neolithic Dawn $19.99 30 60% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Neolithic LLC
debris $9.99 6 16% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Evar Space
Stellar Archipelago $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gogodinosaur

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.