Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + PvP

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + PvP

Of 22 developers who shipped a PvP Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120k, ×93 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $27k; 1 in 20 cleared $100M, ×74422 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 92.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 56 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + PvP
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $279k → $181k → $26k → $4.2M → $79k → $6.7M (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + PvP: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $26k (exactly $26,214)
Median $125k (exactly $124,871)
Top 25% $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515)
Top 5% $100M (exactly $100,245,947)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 88
Announced 56
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, PvP; all of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 245,128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $27k, median $120k, 1 in 4 over $4.1M, 1 in 20 over $100M.

3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 3 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B Dying Light 2015 · $280M SCUM 2025 · $133M Dune: Awakening 2025 · $100M Conan Exiles Enhanced 2018 · $96M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Miscreated older $29.99 23,050 66% 692k $21M (exactly $20,738,085) Entrada Interactive LLC
Hurtworld older $24.99 23,631 76% 709k $18M (exactly $17,716,161) Bankroll Studios
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
Renown · EA $24.99 1,128 53% 34k $846k (exactly $845,662) RDBK Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.