Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Medieval

Only 13 developers shipped a Medieval Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mirthwood, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150k, ×114 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1248 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 114.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $715k → $156k → $154k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $13,840)
Median $154k (exactly $153,523)
Top 25% $715k (exactly $714,599)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 44
Announced 37
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft; all of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 7,373 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $150k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. None of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  8. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stoneshard 2020 · EA · $26M Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M Dark and Light 2017 · EA · $5.7M Life is Feudal: Your Own 2015 · $5.3M Reign Of Kings 2015 · $3.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Dark and Light · EA older $17.99 10,577 51% 317k $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) Snail Games USA
Life is Feudal: Your Own older $19.99 8,804 65% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) Bitbox Ltd.
Reign Of Kings older $9.99 11,838 56% 355k $3.5M (exactly $3,547,849) Code}{atch
Wurm Unlimited older $29.99 1,879 72% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Code Club AB
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Wild Terra 2: New Lands older $39.99 1,379 62% 41k $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) Juvty Worlds
Renown · EA $24.99 1,128 53% 34k $846k (exactly $845,662) RDBK Studios
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
The Last Plague: Blight · EA $16.99 1,402 88% 42k $715k (exactly $714,599) Original Studios
Nested Lands · EA $14.99 482 73% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) 1M Bits Horde
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
ENDALOR · EA $19.99 256 71% 7.7k $154k (exactly $153,523) Diorite Games
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
The Last King · EA $14.99 122 79% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) Mayawi software
Stoneguard · EA $6.99 66 75% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Thorn Spire Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.