Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shooter Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Shooter

Of 25 developers who shipped a Shooter Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $140k, ×103 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $30k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.7M, ×5791 the market median. Revenue is up 10745% on the market; 45 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 103.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10745% on the market, 45 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $54k → $148k → $332k → $31k → $1.1M → $139k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $30k (exactly $29,723)
Median $139k (exactly $138,703)
Top 25% $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984)
Top 5% $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 88
Announced 45
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10745% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Shooter; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival, Base Building, Co-op
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 105,915 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $30k, median $140k, 1 in 4 over $2.8M, 1 in 20 over $7.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $30k. 3 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B Far Cry® Primal 2016 · $35M Deadside 2024 · $26M Hurtworld 2019 · $18M Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Hurtworld older $24.99 23,631 76% 709k $18M (exactly $17,716,161) Bankroll Studios
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.