Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Immersive Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Immersive Sim Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Immersive Sim

Only 14 developers shipped an Immersive Sim Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Abiotic Factor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180k, ×136 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $22k; 1 in 20 cleared $44M, ×32789 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 135.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Immersive Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $661k → $7.8M → $290k (still earning) → $124k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Immersive Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $22k (exactly $21,917)
Median $183k (exactly $182,908)
Top 25% $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827)
Top 5% $44M (exactly $44,166,128)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 46
Announced 37
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Immersive Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Survival
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 79,555 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $22k, median $180k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $44M.

3 in 10 developers made under $22k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  5. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  6. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  7. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  8. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Planet Crafter 2024 · $50M Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey 2020 · $12M Eco 2018 · EA · $10M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
Survival: Fountain of Youth older $27.99 4,095 85% 123k $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) Odinsoft Inc.
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Breathedge 2 · EA $19.99 1,491 86% 45k $894k (exactly $894,153) RedRuins Softworks
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
Primitier $19.99 305 94% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ota Mato
Honeycomb: The World Beyond $29.99 138 65% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Frozen Way
No Man's Home · EA $9.99 268 86% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,320) radrunner
Twilight Tails $16.99 43 51% 1.3k $22k (exactly $21,917) Prokopchuk Pavlo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.