Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Character Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Character Customization Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Character Customization

Of 34 developers who shipped a Character Customization Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120k, ×86 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $100M, ×74422 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 60 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 86.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Character Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $11k → $600k → $26k → $2.3M → $462k → $5.4k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Character Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $12,199)
Median $116k (exactly $115,837)
Top 25% $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464)
Top 5% $100M (exactly $100,245,947)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 86
Announced 60
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Character Customization; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 185,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $120k, 1 in 4 over $1.3M, 1 in 20 over $100M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 2 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds46 devs · median $85k · 81 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Craftopia · EA older $24.99 17,705 76% 531k $13M (exactly $13,273,438) Pocketpair
DRAGON QUEST BUILDERS™ 2 older $49.99 6,888 92% 207k $10M (exactly $10,329,934) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Smalland: Survive the Wilds older $34.99 8,086 82% 243k $8.5M (exactly $8,487,874) Max Ent Games Ltd
The Survivalists older $24.99 8,116 76% 243k $6.1M (exactly $6,084,565) Team17
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Wicked Island · EA $34.99 1,194 76% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) RawDarkness

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.