Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Survival Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival Horror Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Survival Horror

Of 23 developers who shipped a Survival Horror Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×12 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.6M, ×4966 the market median. Revenue is up 2785% on the market; 48 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2785% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Survival Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $230k → $1.6k → $3.0k → $104k → $4.8k → $295k → $139k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Survival Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Median $17k (exactly $16,731)
Top 25% $217k (exactly $216,755)
Top 5% $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 95
Announced 48
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2785% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Survival Horror; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Action, Base Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 35,876 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $6.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
Days Gone older $39.99 82,655 92% 2.5M $99M (exactly $99,161,204) Bend Studio
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Green Hell older $24.99 79,392 84% 2.4M $60M (exactly $59,520,182) Creepy Jar
Don't Starve older $9.99 97,007 96% 2.9M $29M (exactly $29,072,998) Klei Entertainment
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
Nested Lands · EA $14.99 482 73% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) 1M Bits Horde
Ars Notoria · EA $19.99 299 62% 9.0k $179k (exactly $179,310) XRON Software
Project: Mist · EA $17.99 257 72% 7.7k $139k (exactly $138,703) Chicken Launcher
Whisper of the Swallows · EA $19.99 193 88% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Blown Leaves
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.