Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Strategy

Of 38 developers who shipped a Strategy Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×23 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1116 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 66 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 66 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $99k → $7.5M → $195k → $4.3k → $4.7k → $58k (still earning) → $36k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Median $31k (exactly $31,479)
Top 25% $170k (exactly $170,315)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 115
Announced 66
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Strategy; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Crafting
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 18,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.4k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.4k. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
Stranded Deep older $19.99 43,628 74% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,163,712) Beam Team Games
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
TerraTech older $24.99 20,564 92% 617k $15M (exactly $15,416,831) Payload Studios
Sandustry · EA $14.99 4,805 97% 144k $2.2M (exactly $2,160,808) Lantto Games
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Tinkerlands · EA $12.99 3,624 85% 109k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,273) CodeManu, Endless Coffee
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Guardians of the Sanctree $19.99 284 72% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) HuCang Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.