Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Space

Of 26 developers who shipped a Space Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $32k, ×23 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×1339 the market median. Revenue is up 430% on the market; 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 430% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $279k → $14k → $307k → $12k → $4.7k → $1.2M (still earning) → $124k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Median $32k (exactly $31,566)
Top 25% $307k (exactly $307,046)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 73
Announced 43
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 430% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 14,907 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.7k, median $32k, 1 in 4 over $300k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.7k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Starbound older $14.99 87,418 90% 2.6M $39M (exactly $39,311,875) Chucklefish
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Breathedge older $24.99 14,697 82% 441k $11M (exactly $11,018,341) RedRuins Softworks
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
GRAV · EA older $19.99 4,451 49% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,265) BitMonster, Inc.
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Cubic Odyssey $24.99 2,406 74% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) Atypical Games
Astrometica · EA $19.99 2,912 82% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) BeryMery
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
Breathedge 2 · EA $19.99 1,491 86% 45k $894k (exactly $894,153) RedRuins Softworks
Space Trash Scavenger $19.99 512 82% 15k $307k (exactly $307,046) SquarePlay Games
Honeycomb: The World Beyond $29.99 138 65% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Frozen Way
Star Crafter $19.99 98 70% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) Tbjbu2
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.