Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox
Should I ship a Sandbox Open World Survival Craft?
Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox
Of 132 developers who shipped a Sandbox Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 308 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $71k, ×53 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×18749 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 308 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $15k (exactly $14,572) |
|---|---|
| Median | $71k (exactly $71,053) |
| Top 25% | $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) |
| Top 5% | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 132 |
| Released games | 426 |
| Announced | 308 |
| Effort | 9 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $15.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World Survival Craft
- effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 9 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- Open World Survival Craft, Sandbox; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, Base Building
- Price point
- $15.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,211,472 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 4 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 308 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + AutomationFair
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + MedievalPoor odds
- + ShooterPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + Sci-fiPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
Valheim 2026 · $418M 
Terraria 2011 · $372M 
Palworld 2026 · $371M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
| | Terraria | older | $9.99 | 1,240,388 97% | 37M | $372M (exactly $371,744,284) | Re-Logic |
| | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
 | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | The Forest | older | $19.99 | 581,431 95% | 17M | $349M (exactly $348,684,171) | Endnight Games Ltd |
 | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Satisfactory | older | $39.99 | 234,993 97% | 7.0M | $282M (exactly $281,921,102) | Coffee Stain Studios |
 | Project Zomboid | · EA older | $24.99 | 364,830 94% | 11M | $274M (exactly $273,513,051) | The Indie Stone |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | Grounded 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 21,442 82% | 643k | $19M (exactly $19,291,367) | Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal |
 | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Dinkum | $19.99 | 24,641 92% | 739k | $15M (exactly $14,777,208) | James Bendon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.